Who really won last night?

Last night was a big night for Clinton. She won the Texas primary by a hair (51% to 48%), with Obama taking the major metropolitan areas of Austin, Houston, and Dallas. The dust hasn't quite settled, though, as caucus results continue to roll in. With 36% of caucus results reported, Obama is up slightly, with 52%. Of course, it's far too early to tell what the end result of the Texas caucus will be, and I would advise caution in predictions, especially with Clinton's hardball strategy to seize control of the caucus operations.


Ohio was less dramatic, as Clinton was expected to take the state fairly handily, which she did with 54% of the vote. Tellingly, Obama again won the major metropolitan areas of Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland

Despite Clinton's wins, Obama continues to hold a slight lead in the number of delegates - one that remains a significant obstacle for Clinton.

Critical to Clinton's prospect of victory are the superdelegates, the nearly 800 elected officials and party leaders who can vote any way they choose. Her campaign envisions what aides call a "buyer's remorse" strategy of raising enough doubts about the first-term senator from Illinois through increasingly vigorous attacks and tougher media scrutiny to convince the superdelegates that it would be too risky to nominate him.

That reflects the recognition that it would be enormously difficult for Clinton to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates chosen by voters in primaries and caucuses. By some calculations, Clinton would need to win more than 60 percent of the vote in the dozen contests remaining between now and June 7 to catch Obama in pledged delegates -- a steep challenge given that, so far, she has won that much in only one state, her onetime adopted home of Arkansas. Even in New York, where she is a sitting senator, she won 57 percent of the vote. She won 55 percent in Michigan, where Obama was not even on the ballot.

Are we seeing a replay of the 1976 Republican primary? I don't know. A Clinton comeback could be a real blessing in disguise for Obama. As Afghanistan slips into becoming a narco-state, the Iraq war slogs on, and oil and the U.S. Dollar continue to go their separate ways, the winner of the 2008 presidential election may be the biggest loser.

The next four years may be just the time Obama needs to solidify his place as the  next Reagan.

As for this morning, though, things seems to be less clear than they were two days ago. Advantage: Rush Limbaugh



Display:


Hillary Clinton, give it a rest (2.00 / 1)

She did what she had to do.  Many didn't think she could push back against the Obamentum but it shows that people still want more time to sort this nomination out.


by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 08:55:12 AM EST

Woops my post got messed up (none / 0)

My subject line was just supposed to say Hillary Clinton, lol.  The give it a rest part was meant to be a response to some other person in the open thread. hah, up all night folks.


by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 08:56:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton, give it a rest (2.00 / 1)

With that interpretation I can agree. People are not ready to call it a day yet.


by marcotom on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 08:59:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton, give it a rest (none / 0)

Yep she was up 20 points two weeks ago, lost half of that in Ohio and basically had a draw in Texas


by bigdavefromqueens on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 10:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NOTHING beyond URBAN in OH.TX (2.00 / 1)

What was glaring in both defeats by Obama in Ohio & Texas was his peformance in the non-urban vote.
( This was INDENTICAL to the result in states like NJ,MA,AR & TN)

Obama performed very well in predominantly Black Urban areas. However, the rest of the state went massive for Hillary Clinton. And we are ONLY in the Democratic Primary.

If this was already the General election, Obama would lose all these states by landslide margins against McCain.

As pointed out by CNN, he does poorly in suburban & rural non-black voters across battleground states. Black voters could not carry him in the primary in these states & more so in the GE.

When the GE massive white electoral comes in, he will lose badly in these battleground states.

As CNN points out, Don't be Surprise if PA performs exactly like Ohio. The demographics are very similar. The only difference is expect Clinton to even win bigger because its an CLOSED PRIMARY.

As pundits continue disecting results for the next 3 months, it will be hard for Democratic Super Delegates & Party elders to Ignore the face that Obama is a VERY WEAK GE candidate.


by labanman on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:03:34 AM EST

Your analysis is flawed (2.00 / 2)

this primary doesn't translate into the GE.  Clinton ain't McCain.  Whats true about what you said is people voted their fears.  When people vote their fears we get GWB or something very much like it.  There is still a lot of voting to go.  I hope that Hillary's slash and burn politics won't work for the rest of this primary.


Listening comes first
by Moonwood on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:45:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NOTHING beyond URBAN in OH.TX (none / 0)

Funny, enough the counties where Hillary won are the counties where no Democrat wins in November. This is the micro-version of Clinton's argument that Obama only wins in red states that Obama cannot win. The problem is that these Hillary voters in, say, West Texas or rural Ohio will be swamped by McCain voters in those same counties - the same margin as Kerry, probably. But the metropolitan areas - urban and suburban - could turn the race to the Democrats. Can Hillary count on large African American turnout anymore? Can Hillary count on educated suburban Democrats who voted for Obama - both Democrats and Independents?

The only argument in Hillary's favor re: Ohio is the obvious power of Ted Strickland in the Appalachian counties. Hillary Clinton is a stronger candidate in Appalachia vis-a-vis McCain than Obama. But is that the case anywhere outside Appalachia?


by elrod on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 10:34:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Rove knows how to win elections (2.00 / 1)

Hillary is paying attention.  Dig up dirt, make false accusations - worked great.  Now we have to elect a leader - thats a little harder.  


Listening comes first
by Moonwood on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:41:23 AM EST

Re: NOPE (none / 0)

So Hillary won Texas because of the Limbaugh vote?


by elrod on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 10:29:56 AM EST

Re: NOPE (none / 0)

That's certainly not what I meant to imply. When I said I thought the advantage goes to Limbaugh, I simply meant that a drawn out Democratic primary contest will serve Limbaugh's interests as it gives him an easy source of content to draw from.

I linked to that article because I also think that McCain and the Republicans will benefit from a drawn out primary. In fact, I think this is largely playing into the Republican plan. Romney, I suspect (and I'm not the only one), dropped out after pressure from the GOP leadership who saw the opportunity to solidify support behind a single candidate and build  coalitions among centrist/independent groups more easily if the Democrats were divided in their primary. Romney clearing the way for McCain did that, and a continued Democratic primary simply gives the Republicans more time to work on their campaign.

That's not to say that I think either Clinton or Obama should stand aside. If I were advising either candidate, I would tell them to stay in - that's what's best for either candidate at this point. But to pretend that the Republicans aren't going to take the advantage of having the Democrats split for a while longer is to underestimate the Republican campaign machine.

Sorry it took me so long to reply, I'm at IPDI all day and couldn't seem to login from my blackberry. At any rate, I hope this clarifies my post.


by Seth Oldmixon on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 02:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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